Shiller CAPE20%
41.1
4.93
—
98th pct since 1881; web 41.1 vs computed 47.9; divergence 6.7 pts - earnings vintage suspect; 10yr real earnings carried from 2023-06-01 (38 months)
Eight valuation, credit and fiscal instruments plus a nineteen-voice sentiment roster, read against the deployment rules.
At composite 4.5+, historically a 40% probability that a 20%+ real decline begins within 36 months (29% for 30%+) - but 4.5+ zones also produced the longest melt-ups. The signal is regime, not timing.
98th pct since 1881; web 41.1 vs computed 47.9; divergence 6.7 pts - earnings vintage suspect; 10yr real earnings carried from 2023-06-01 (38 months)
median ~85%, dotcom peak 146-172%; 200%+ is the top of the historical range
1/CAPE 2.43% - real 10y 1.30% (nominal 4.73% - trailing 10y CPI 3.43%)
real price vs its 120-month average; 92nd pct historically
trailing 12m real price change, 75th pct. Froth marker, not a sell signal - the classic top is momentum turning DOWN while valuation stays red
EARLY-WARNING TRIPWIRE. -10bps vs the 2026-08-21 report (tightening). Tight = complacent; past 500bps alongside an equity drawdown is the staged-deployment trigger
positive after a post-inversion re-steepening = 3.0 (*) - recessions historically arrive 12-18 months AFTER un-inversion, not during the inversion
~6% deficits at full employment scores 4.5
Scion stopped filing 13Fs in Nov 2025 - positions now come from his Cassandra Unchained Substack, so the disclosure lag is his choice and the newest trades (Aug 4) are paywalled
Disclosed bearish book: puts on NVDA and PLTR at up to ~80% of the portfolio (~$1.1bn notional), plus TSLA, CAT, AMAT, SMH and MU opened 30 June and added 24 July
12m cut to -3, but the rhetoric>action gap stands: JPM keeps lending and underwriting while he says he would not buy
'Margin debt is the highest it has ever been', much of it hidden in prime brokerage, ETFs and Treasury-basis trades; says he would not buy the S&P 500 or long-dated Treasuries at today's prices and the market is one bad trade from panic selling
latest sourced statement is June 2026 - inside the 6-month window but not fresh this fortnight
Calls this 'the most expensive market in American history'; a reversion to trend would be closer to a wipeout than a correction, and the odds an AI bubble does not bust are 'slim to none'
Held: Fed commentary, no equity view
Yahoo Finance interview: Warsh's speech 'utterly conventional' - 'tight money until we see a lot better data'
conviction up: says his own indicators already put AI stocks in bubble territory, and the next crisis is sovereign rather than banking
Late-stage debt cycle; Fed balance-sheet expansion is 'stimulus into a bubble'; most likely path is a 1970s-style stagflationary spiral with the Fed monetising
conviction up: says credit markets are already writing the warning - directly relevant to the HY tripwire
With Richard Bernstein: the AI trade is a bubble, real disposable income is fractionally negative y/y, and ex-AI the four-quarter real GDP trend is under 1.5% - a K-shaped economy where profits take all the income growth
36m cut to 0: record margin debt, record equity allocations and index concentration are her stated longer-term risks
Rotation backdrop persists and higher yields are biting; investors are 'reluctantly' long via ETF flows and margin debt
baseline still 'Goldilocks', but names a more fragile backdrop: Middle East war, AI job-shedding, private-credit stress
Holds the Goldilocks 2026 baseline - tariffs walked back, growth slower, inflation only modestly higher
Held: rates/fiscal call, no equity view - hyperscaler issuance crowding out Treasury demand
Daily Spark 'Rates Will Stay Higher for Longer': debt growing faster than GDP, Fed weighing a hike
Held: Fed-process commentary only
X post on Warsh's Jackson Hole speech: the balance is 'difficult to strike' and 'almost certain to leave some unsatisfied'; leans to the 'longer-term secular side'
'No crash, just a forward weave requiring a cane'; bearish long Treasuries on deficits, prefers energy infrastructure and MLPs to exuberant tech
Valuation casts a shadow over 2026; the record rally is at risk of stalling unless AI earnings show up
REVEALED PREFERENCE FLIPPED: first net buying in 15 quarters. Cash still $365bn, so the caution is real - but the direction of travel reversed
Q2-26: ~$19.8bn net equity purchases after 14 straight quarters of net selling; cash $397.4bn -> $365.5bn; $4.5bn of buybacks; Alphabet now the third-largest holding at $36.6bn
current worry is private credit, not public equity: fast capital deployment into direct lending, with PE portfolio-company performance as the hinge
Memo 'What's Going On in Private Credit?' - direct lending's growth, and the issues rapid deployment created
Raised S&P 500 target to 8,400 on 'fabulous earnings momentum' - now among the Street's highest
'Golden Age' thesis intact: deflationary tech + fiscal push
Q2-26 13F: book up to $15.4bn across 191 names; Tesla/AMD/SpaceX/Tempus/Robinhood ~25% of assets
8,000 near-term target BUT explicitly warns of bear-market-like moves Aug-Oct
S&P to 7,900-8,000 this month ('the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout'), year-end 8,000+ with upside to 8,400-8,800 - while flagging four H2 triggers
Held: equities' 'impressive resilience', inflation risks building, no hike expected before the midterms
WisdomTree weekly commentary 'Markets Hold Firm as Inflation Risks Build'
Bond/fiscal critique, no new equity view; still long megacap tech from the Q2 13F while attacking rate suppression
WSJ op-ed: Bessent's expanded long-bond buybacks are 'price management'; the long bond is 'the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left'
hold 3.50-3.75%; Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (08-28): 2% target 'firm', 'predominant focus right now should be on prices', policy not restrictive, no forward guidance - 'committed to a discipline, not to a decision'. hawkish; September hike odds rose to ~54-60% after the speech (from ~35% before)
Sets the reaction function behind the September hike - the policy input to the 10y and the Excess CAPE Yield tile
Slok's fiscal case for structurally higher long rates - the fiscal tile feeding the 10y
Siegel's pre-Jackson Hole base case: no hike before the midterms - the call the Fed then broke
Composite 4.38 (frothy / hold dry powder). Base DCA continues regardless of score. Above 3.5, so the DCA-doubling rule stays dormant; it arms at 3.5 (+0.88 away). Hold dry powder. HY spreads at 260bps are still inside 500bps, so the staged dry-powder trigger is not armed. Credit is the tripwire: it goes first.